US/NATO War on Russia

[Lauren Johnson]

The reaction to the pending or actual ceasefire in Ukraine proxy war ranges from bafflement to fury at the Donbas leadership as well as at Putin. Thousands of Ukrainian troops remain cutoff from support in various pockets, not to mention Mariupol. The battle to reclaim this important port had just begun with several thousand troops trapped there as well. (Rumor has it that there are several important NATO advisers in the city. But it is just a rumor.) Prevailing wisdom is that a winning side would not stop fighting just when they are about to utterly destroy the enemy.

For example, Colonel Cassad said this on Sept. 3rd.

7. Thus, the autumn starts with the Junta in transition from offence to defense, and there are clearly not enough resources to hold the entire line; even after the front is straightened out. It should be understood that even if the Junta could stretch a solid front line from Donetsk to Berdyansk, there would be nothing available to close a gap in the event of another breakthrough. In general, the size of the theater of operations clearly exceeds the abilities of the warring parties. The Junta is facing the same problem faced by the NAF in June, when it was trying to hold large areas without sufficient forces to do so, which led to breaks in the front. Now the Junta is in the same situation, thus emphasizing that operational initiative is the key to victory, in the event one lacks sufficient forces to control large swathes of territory. The side which has the operational initiative can choose the direction of attack, concentrate forces there, achieve local superiority, and convert these efforts to captured towns and cities; and burning enemy vehicles with charred corpses lying along the roads.

8. As the Junta cannot seize the initiative back yet (the concentration of 1-2 brigades by Zaporozhye, to be used for counter-attack, requires a few more days), it began a retreat, during which it tried to free up additional forces for the southern front and transition to a stubborn defense of advantageous positions. It is now key for the NAF to keep the operational initiative, as it more than offsets the advantages of the enemy in manpower and vehicles. In this respect, while carrying out offensives in several directions, it is important not to overdo it and not to expose the flanks to cleaving strikes of Junta's mechanized forces (the NAF still had trouble parrying these strikes as late as August).


Overall, as of September 3rd, we can confidently say that the fascist Junta has switched to strategic defense in the Donbass.

The cease fire is then announced yesterday. And in response, here is the statement issued by the commander of the Ghost Battalion (LPR), Alexey Mozgovoy, who is with the faction that says marching to Kiev is the only solution.

Novorossiya shall be! Oligarchs out! Power to the real, common people! This is our [first] chance in many decades to build an equitable, human and humane society.

WITH RESPECT TO STRELKOV HAVING BEEN BETRAYED AND BETRAYAL IN GENERAL.

There are so many who did not like what was begun and do not want to push it to its logical conclusion!
They only have money, offices and portfolios in their heads! But why did the people of the South-East rise up??? Was it just so that they could lose countless lives, lose their livelihoods, lose their confidence in the future?

If we are fighting for the interests of the people, is it not up to the people themselves to decide the outcome of this struggle? See it through completely…

Who among these so-called members of the governments of the DPR and the LPR bothered to ask the opinion of the Militiamen, who lose their comrades in battles; the opinion of the relatives, who lost fathers, sons and daughters in this struggle for the right to live free and to choose their own path? I believe none of them did. All this seems to be a farce; a spectacle, in which the role of the people of Novorossiya is to be extras on the set.

There have now been several stages of this betrayal of Novorossiya (including the resignation' of Igor Ivanovich Strelkov). In my opinion, right now, we are witnessing another attempt, by means of negotiations, to stop the resistance and to prevent the destruction of the oligarchic power in Ukraine. The fifth column in action… The transfer of power from the oligarchy to the peopleright now this is the so-called international community's nightmare. It became clear to everyone long ago that the world is ruled by the likes of Valtsman [Poroshenko], Chubais and the Rockefellers. For these, removal from power is akin to death.

And what do we see now? ARRANGEMENTS! And with whom? At the negotiating table: the venerable Kuchma! During his reign, the fat cats only gained momentum and swelled their appetites! Corruption soared to inexplicable heights. He should be prosecuted, not negotiated with! What will happen to the special status of Novorossiya, when all the same contract killers will remain? What guarantees can be discussed with people that have eliminated the word TRUTH from their vocabulary?

And from Cassad:

Interfax reports http://lifenews.ru/news/139844 (in Russian) that an armistice was signed in Minsk between the Ukrainian junta on one side and the DPR and the LPR on the other side. It goes into effect today, after 18-00.

Overall, as I wrote before, it is more likely to be advantageous for the junta, which needs an urgent military respite in order to regroup and to restore the connectedness of the front line. Well, as for the talks themselves, they are a step towards "Larger Transnistria" with separating two more regions from Ukraine but simultaneously a step away from creating Large Novorossia, which remains under the control of the fascist junta in these types of scenarios.


The question of whether the leadership of Novorossia could refrain from signing this armistice is not essential: the necessary rearrangements for such a decision were made a bit earlier and all possible obstacles in the way of reaching an armistice were removed, starting with Strelkov. So this agreement, if it is indeed signed (and for now its text wasn't published yet and all references are made to insider sources) and goes into effect, primarily reflects the current foreign policy course of the Kremlin with respect to Donbass.

Nevertheless, for now the conditions of this truce are not clear. It is also not clear if it will be observed and what will be the line that separates the two entities. Considering the position of the USA, which are interested in continuing the war, there are significant grounds for supposing that even if this truce will be achieved, then it will simply be a pause before the military action is resumed.

Well, and if the media got ahead of themselves and the agreement isn't signed, then this is actually great and the army of Novorossia may continue the offensive and the rout of the remaining encirclements.

PS. Meanwhile, fighting continues in Mariupol, the reinforced assault groups of the army of Novorossia managed to enter the city and to set off fighting there, liberating a couple of blocks from the junta in the process. At this time the fighting still continues and apparently it will continue up until the evening.

Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1769421.html (in Russian)

Note from the translator: it appears that the fighting in Mariupol has since ceased, for now it remains under the control of the Ukrainian regime.

The Saker has no comments on this thus far.

EDIT: Any sense that the anti-junta efforts are united all the way from Moscos to the end of Donbas' tanks and grad launchers is obviously false. Just what are Moscow's goals are not clear.