The Most Important Error the FBI told the Warren Commission about the Rifle

[Bob Prudhomme]

In order to calculate anything for the open sights, we need to establish how high the notch in the rear sight is above the centreline of the barrel.

From Mike Yardle, Positive Shooting: (open sights) " The gun was 6 feet or more off target at 100 yards. Frank and I thought it a waste of time considering the open sights from this point on - it was evident to both of us that Oswald could not have used them unless his hits were pure chance - anyone who suggests otherwise has no practical experience of the Carcano."

Are the open sights adjustable, or fixed at the factory?

Using the NARA photo it looks to me like the tip of the sight at the end of the barrel is .69 inches above the center of the barrel, and the top of the notch site is .85 inches above the centerline of the barrel. gonna see if I can estimate the depth of the notch...

Best I can get from the available photos is that the bottom of the rear notch would be from .49 to .53 inches above the centerline of the barrel, but this is really approaching the limit of digital photo uncertainty, namely that one pixel is basically the difference. Would the lowest point of the rear notch be ~.5 inches and the tip of the end sight be ~.85 inches?

Heck, maybe the shooter just shut his eyes.

I shouldn't say that the open sights on the M91/38 are fixed. The rear sight, controlling elevation, is fixed. The front sight, like any military rifle, can be moved sideways by an armourer to make left and right adjustments on the rifle's aim point. I'm not sure about the Carcano but, as some military rifles' barrels wear and their shots begin falling short of the target, it is possible to replace the front blade sight with a shorter blade that will bring the front of the barrel up when a soldier aims the rifle.

It does seem a bit odd for the front sight to be higher than the rear sight, as the intention is for the bullet to cross the line of sight at some point. For the calculation, let's just go with the rear sight at .5 inch above the barrel centreline and see what we get.

[TABLE]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2165[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1686[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2133[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.03[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.01[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1637[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2110[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.66[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.07[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.02[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1602[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2087[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.21[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.13[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.02[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1567[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2064[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.74[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.21[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.03[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1532[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2041[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.26[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.31[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.04[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1499[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.61[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2019[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.74[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.44[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.05[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1466[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.69[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]35[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1996[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.21[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.58[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.05[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1433[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]40[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1974[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.66[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.75[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.06[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1402[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]45[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1952[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.94[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.07[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1371[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1930[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.48[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.15[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1340[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]55[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1908[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.86[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.38[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1310[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1887[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.22[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.64[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.09[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1281[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1865[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.55[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.92[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.1[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1251[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]70[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1844[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.85[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.23[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.11[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1223[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]75[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1823[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.13[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.57[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.12[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1196[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.06[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]80[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1802[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.38[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.93[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.12[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1168[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]85[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1781[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.61[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.31[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.13[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1141[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1760[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.81[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.73[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.14[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1114[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]95[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1740[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.98[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.17[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.15[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1089[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1720[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.12[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.64[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.16[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1064[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1700[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.24[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.14[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.17[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1040[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.69[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]110[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1680[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.32[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.67[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.18[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1015[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]115[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1660[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.37[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.23[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.19[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]991[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]120[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1641[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.39[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.83[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.19[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]969[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]125[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1621[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.38[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.45[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]945[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]130[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1602[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.33[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]8.11[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.21[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]923[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]135[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1583[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.24[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]8.81[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.22[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]901[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]140[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1565[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.14[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]9.53[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.23[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]881[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]145[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1546[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.98[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10.3[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.24[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]860[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]150[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1528[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.79[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]11.1[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.25[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]840[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]155[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1510[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.58[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]11.93[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.26[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]820[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]160[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1492[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.31[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]12.81[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.27[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]801[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]8.36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]165[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1475[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.01[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]13.72[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.28[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]783[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]8.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]170[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1457[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.67[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]14.68[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.29[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]764[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]9.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]175[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1440[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]5.29[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]15.67[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]746[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10.04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]180[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1423[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.86[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]16.71[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.31[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]728[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]185[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1407[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.4[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]17.79[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.32[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]712[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]11.27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]190[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1390[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.89[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]18.91[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.33[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]695[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]11.92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]195[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1374[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.33[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]20.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.34[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]679[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]12.58[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1359[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.73[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]21.3[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.36[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]664[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]13.27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]205[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1343[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]22.56[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.37[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]649[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]13.98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]210[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1328[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.38[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]23.87[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.38[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]634[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]14.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]215[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1313[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.64[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]25.23[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.39[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]620[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]15.47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]220[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1299[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-0.16[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]26.64[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.4[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]607[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]16.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The above shows the Carcano zeroed at 219 yards. At 15 yards, the bullet is 1.21 inches above the line of sight. At 100 yards, the bullet is 7.12 inches above the line of sight. At 88 yards, the distance of the headshot, the bullet is still almost 7 inches above the line of sight. This was not what one would call a flat shooting rifle.

Once again, we have to take into consideration the fact that the shot was from six stories up. A downhill shot (and an uphill shot) will always impact higher than the point of aim, and this would only add to the problem of your bullet impacting 7 inches above the point of aim.