30-11-2012, 02:45 AM
So you think these 50 points of identification, the similarity in their right ears, in their left eyes, in the shape of their skulls and their hairlines IS A MATTER OF COINCIDENCE? What would the probability be? If we assume similarity would occur BY CHANCE one time in 10 for each of these features, then we are talking about an improbability of 1/10 to the 54th power or 1/1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 more or less. I infer you are no student of probability, but the probability of 54 points of similarity if they were the same shirt would be approximately 1!
Get serious. There is no good reason to believe this nonsense. The official account has always been that he returned to his rooming house to pick up his jacket and his .38. Words are cheap. Why are you quoting Ralph Cinque, by the way, when this study was done by Richard Hooke? Maybe Richard didn't say what you wanted him to say, so you are putting words in his mouth? It's not just the shirt but the build, the jaw, the right ear, the left eye, the shape of the skull, and much, much more. Plus we have many proofs that this cannot be Lovelady. So this is SOMEONE ELSE altogether? No one believes that.
My last academic book is co-editing THE PLACE OF PROBABILITY IN SCIENCE (2010). One hypothesis in science is preferable to another when it has a higher likelihood than the other, given the same evidence, where the likelihood of an hypothesis is the probability that it confers upon the evidence (as an effect) if it were true (as its cause). The hypothesis you advance has close to zero likelihood, while our hypothesis has a probability approximating one. Not only is the identity hypothesis over-whlemingly probable, but the more research we do the stronger our proof. Get over it. Oswald was Doorman.
Get serious. There is no good reason to believe this nonsense. The official account has always been that he returned to his rooming house to pick up his jacket and his .38. Words are cheap. Why are you quoting Ralph Cinque, by the way, when this study was done by Richard Hooke? Maybe Richard didn't say what you wanted him to say, so you are putting words in his mouth? It's not just the shirt but the build, the jaw, the right ear, the left eye, the shape of the skull, and much, much more. Plus we have many proofs that this cannot be Lovelady. So this is SOMEONE ELSE altogether? No one believes that.
My last academic book is co-editing THE PLACE OF PROBABILITY IN SCIENCE (2010). One hypothesis in science is preferable to another when it has a higher likelihood than the other, given the same evidence, where the likelihood of an hypothesis is the probability that it confers upon the evidence (as an effect) if it were true (as its cause). The hypothesis you advance has close to zero likelihood, while our hypothesis has a probability approximating one. Not only is the identity hypothesis over-whlemingly probable, but the more research we do the stronger our proof. Get over it. Oswald was Doorman.
David Josephs Wrote:Ralph Cinque Wrote:I am under no such obligation to definitively answer such questions- certainly no more so than those who argue that Doorman is Lovelady. Altgens' film was in the hands of the AP, and they released it to the news wires. You are obfuscating.
"Deep political analysis" has nothing to do with it and has zero value. The likenesses between Doorman's and Oswald's shirts, that I point to, stand on their own merit. YOU are the one who has to provide alternative explanations for those likenesses- not me.
THE ARGUMENT MADE: "The likenesses between Doorman's and Oswald's shirts, that I point to, stand on their own merit"
If we are to believe anything that Fritz writes in his notes... one of them is:
"Changed shirts + tr. Put dirty clothes - long sleeve red sh + gray tr."
and
"Home by bus changed britches"
SHIRTS?
The doc below is the inventory taken from Beckley... check the last two items
Bookout hears and records the same thing
http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archiv...lPageId=37
Roberts says he comes in with SHIRTSLEEVES...
Mrs. ROBERTS. He went to his room and he was in his shirt sleeves but I couldn't
tell you whether it was a long-sleeved shirt or what color it was or nothing,
and he got a jacket and put it on---it was kind of a zipper jacket.
Mr. BALL. Had you ever seen him wear that jacket before?
Mrs. ROBERTS. I can't say I did---if I did, I don't remember it.
Mr. BALL. When he came in he was in a shirt?
Mrs. ROBERTS. He was in his shirt sleeves.
shirtsleeves: The state of wearing no coat, jacket, or other outer garment over one's shirt
Mr. BALL. I'll show you this jacket which is Commission Exhibit 162---have you ever seen this jacket before? http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archiv...eId=138188
Mrs. ROBERTS. Well, maybe I have, but I don't remember it. It seems like the one he put on was darker than that. Now, I won't be sure, because I really don't know, but is that a zipper jacket?
Mr. BALL. Yes---it has a zipper down the front.
Mrs. ROBERTS. Well, maybe it was
Mr. BELIN. Do you remember what he had on?
Mrs. DAVIS. He had on a light-brown-tan jacket.
Mr. BELIN. Do you remember what color his trousers were?
Mrs. DAVIS. I think they were black. Brown jacket and trousers.
Mr. BELIN - Anything else you can think of about the man after you saw him? What
was he wearing? What did he look like?
Mr. BENAVIDES - Well, he was kind of, well, just about your size.
Mr. BELIN - About my size? I am standing up.
Mr. BENAVIDES - You are about 5' 10"?
Mr. BELIN - I am between 5' 10" and 5' 11". Closer to 5' 11", I believe.
Mr. BENAVIDES - I would say he was about your size, and he had a light-beige jacket, and was lightweight.
Mr. BELIN - Did it have buttons or a zipper, or do you remember?
Mr. BENAVIDES - It seemed like it was a zipper-type jacket.
Mr. BELIN - What color was the trousers?
Mr. BENAVIDES - They were dark.
Mr. BELIN - Do you remember what kind of shirt he had on?
Mr. BENAVIDES - It was dark in color, but I don't remember exactly what color.
Mr. BELIN - Was he average weight, slender, or heavy?
Mr. BENAVIDES - I would say he was average weight.
Mr. BELIN - What color hair did he have?
Mr. BENAVIDES - Oh, dark. I mean not dark.
Mr. BELIN - Black hair?
Mr. BENAVIDES - No. Not black or brown, just kind of a----
Mr. BELIN - My color hair?
Mr. BENAVIDES - Yes.
Mr. BELIN - You say he is my size, my weight, and my color hair?
Mr. BENAVIDES - He kind of looks like---well, his hair was a little bit curlier.
Mr. BELIN - Anything else about him that looked like me.
Mr. BENAVIDES - No. that is all.
Mr. BELIN - What about his skin? Was he fair complexioned or dark complexioned?
Mr. BENAVIDES - He wasn't dark.
Mr. BELIN - Average complexion?
Mr. BENAVIDES - No; a little bit darker than average.
Mr. BELIN - My complexion?
Mr. BENAVIDES - I wouldn't say that any more. I would say he is about your complexion, sir. Of course he looked, his skin looked a little bit ruddier than mine.
Mr. BELIN - His skin looked ruddier than mine? I might say for the record, that I was not in Dallas on November 22, 1963.
Mr. BENAVIDES - No, just your size.
Mr. BELIN - Did he look like me?
Mr. BENAVIDES - No; your face, not your face, but just your size.
(DJ: 5'11" of AVERAGE build... yet all we have in custody is a 5'9" 140lb man NOT wearing a v-neck t-shirt...
Why all this time comparing Altgens' which occurs BEFORE he changes his clothes... to his ARREST SHIRT(s) which he changed out of and was found in his room AFTER he was arrested....
There is of course NO CHANCE these shirts got mixed up after the fact - since the shirt sent to the FBI was not numbered like the other stuff....
Does anyone believe THE IMAGE ON THE RIGHT is Oswald talking to a policeman?
It is from one of the THREE TRAMPS photos.
Cheers
DJ